Tom Joad's Place

Welcome to Tom Joad's Place! Join me for political discussion and banter on important national subjects and VA politics. I've also noticed that there are a lot of people looking for information on "Grapes of Wrath". Look for the sidebar and we'll discuss. Contact Kevin, at

Location: Fairfax, Virginia, United States

Tuesday, June 28, 2005

Can we have a debate?

Here is an excellent article from the Raising Kaine blog.

Jerry Kilgore should not be avoiding debates. I know that the Kilgore camp might be thinking that if we're in the lead, we don't have to debate and give the Kaine campaign press. The unfortunate thing for Kilgore is that there will probably more bad press for him and he will STILL have to debate.

Just agree to a debate, make it televised and include Russ Potts. Give the people of Virginia what they want.

Monday, June 27, 2005

Crazy Craddock Call

While enjoying my dinner tonight, I received a phone call from Chris Craddock. It was a survey call that asked all of the questions I expected (abortion, taxes, guns). The wording was tricky to try and trip up an unsuspecting listener. I answered truthfully and hung up the phone.

The funny thing is that I'm not in the district. I live in the 35th which is represented by Steve Shannon. The district that Craddock is running for is north of West Ox Road. I'm south of West Ox. The question I have is that if this campaign is that scary talented, why can't they get who lives in their district right?

Sunday, June 19, 2005

Attorney General Race

The first Attorney General debate took place yesterday. Democratic candidate, Creigh Deeds, was painted as not being "conservative enough". Republican candidate Bob McDonnell is against embryonic stem cell research and is against state's rights on marriage by wanting a Constitutional amendment on gay marriage.

My prediction in mid-June would be

Deeds 53

McDonnell 47

Tuesday, June 14, 2005

Open Thread- Primary Day

Not Larry Sabato has put up a post on his blog that has people updating their precinct counts...It's not scientific but it's fun to look at.

I was out at the polls at 6 am. Six people showed up to vote including myself, another voter registration worker and a poll worker...I left at 7:15...I'm expecting maybe 200 people to show up at my precinct today.

Update: New updates from Not Larry Sabato.

Monday, June 13, 2005

Virginia Primary Predictions

Here are my predictions on the races I care about. I'm not giving any reasons, just predictions (too many things to do before tomorrow).

Republican Governor:

Now this one is no contest but I'll guess the precentage. Kilgore 79 Fitch 21

Republican Lt. Governor

Bill Bolling 52 Sean Connaughton 48

Republican Attorney General

Bob McDonnell 55 Steve Baril 45

Democratic Lt. Governor

Leslie Byrne 31 Chap Peterson 29 Viola Baskerville 21 Phil Puckett 19

House of Delegate Primaries

37th Democratic

Bulova over Oleszek

45th Democratic

Englin defeats the other 5 challengers

33rd Republican*

Joe May over Chris Oprison

35th Republican

Hyland over Robinson

37th Republican

Mason over Kaplan

41st Republican

Golden over Finerfrock

54th Republican*

Orrock over Kenney

67th Republican*

Craddock over Reese

*means anti-tax primary race

In all, I think the anti-tax folks will get 1 out of 6 that they have challenged.

Feel free to make your own predictions.

Congressional Pay for Play Scandal?

Waldo has the story.

Check this story out...there is something not right about this. Could there be some ethical violations here?

Update: John Marshall has some news on Randy Cunningham's business and contract deals.

Saturday, June 11, 2005

Birthday break

Taking a break today for my birthday...

I will have my predictions for VA state and delegate races tomorrow...

Have a fun Saturday!!!

Wednesday, June 08, 2005

It's about

The Post states the obvious today in their series of articles on the VA Delegate races. The tax issue is THE issue. Well...duh! That's the sole reason that the Republicans who voted for the 2004 tax packages are getting challenges.

Chris Oprison is running the same playbook in the 33rd against Joe May that Chris Craddock in the 67th and Shaun Kenney in the 54th are. Everything else, for right now, goes by the wayside (abortion, guns, gays).

This is what piques my interest in the story...a change in NOVA political dynamics?

In the 2004 presidential election, 97 of America's 100 fastest-growing counties voted Republican, according to a study by the Los Angeles Times. Virginia has several such communities: Loudoun, Spotsylvania and Stafford counties are ranked in the top 25, according to federal statistics, and all voted overwhelmingly Republican in November.

Several of the GOP delegates who face anti-tax challengers represent these fast-growing areas.

The delegates and the challengers tend to have different visions of what the new residents want.

The challengers say that many of the new voters are looking for a more conservative brand of politician, one who takes a harder stand on taxes and social issues.

I don't know if they are MORE Republican in terms of hardcore conservative values. I actually think that the Republicans who are moving to Loudoun, Spotslyvania, and Stafford are moderates who want the kind of leadership and votes that May, Bobby Orrock and Gary Reese can provide. I also believe that you are getting more and more Democrats into the NOVA region. They will be moving out to Western Fairfax and Eastern Loudoun because of cheaper housing.

If these men are elected out this year and replaced with big time conservatives, you can expect the Democrats to come out with strong challenges in 2007 with moderate Dems who won't offend that much. The seats that the anti-tax Republicans pick up today can be in Dem hands by 2007. Be careful for what you wish for is what I've been told. Conservative Republicans in NOVA should heed that advice.

Sunday, June 05, 2005

Link Sidebar...Why I'm not a computer programmer

I'm attempting to create a link sidebar and I've had generous help from Justin. I want to put up his website for all of the help he has given me. Check it out.

Justin's Website

It will be on the side bar including this other great site I have found about the House of Delegate races in VA. It is run by a guy named Not Larry Sabato.

As soon as I become more computer savvy, I will have those links up. I promise.

Republican Attorney General Race

With under 10 days left until the June 14 primary date, Republican Attorney General Candidates Steve Baril and Bob McDonnell are hitting each other with everything they've got.

McDonnell is calling Baril a "neophyte" that will not be able to effectively work in the Va. State Legislature. Baril sees his inexperience as a positive.

Steve Baril acknowledges that he does not have the experience as a politician that his opponent for the Republican attorney general nomination has, but he sees that as a good thing.

One of the reasons people encouraged him to run, he said, was "the fact that I don't owe anybody anything; I don't have any bad habits."

And, he points out, the last attorney general, Jerry Kilgore, had not held elected office prior to being elected to that post.

Baril is claiming that McDonnell is not running a clean campaign.

McDonnell's campaign says that's nonsense.

McDonnell's campaign staff responded to the accusations by saying he has "followed the letter and spirit of Virginia law" and said Baril was waging "desperate" attacks to save a failing campaign.

The Post had a huge error in their subhead claiming this was a "Lt. Governor" race. I think McDonnell wins this one in a squeaker. McDonnell, being from Hampton Roads, will have a down ticket effect if he is on the ballot in November. Baril, being from Richmond, will not.

Thursday, June 02, 2005

37th District Primary

From the Washington Post :

"Virginia may be a red state and some Northern Virginia communities may be blue, but in the 37th House District, a suburban mix of Democrats and Republicans just outside the Capital Beltway, the political colors blend into purple.

For years, this area of central Fairfax County and Fairfax City supported GOP candidates in presidential and state elections."

The House of Delegates race in the 37th District is going to turn into a shoot out on both the Republican and Democratic sides. This district is just down the road from me and I've seen a concentrated effort by all four candidates to push as hard as they can before June 14.

"But last November, it went Democratic in the presidential race. In 2001, Democrat J. Chapman Petersen barely upset Republican John H. "Jack" Rust Jr., who had held the House of Delegates seat for a decade. Petersen handily beat Rust in a rematch two years later.

Could the seat be going Democratic? Leaders in both parties say they don't know. But with Petersen bowing out to run for lieutenant governor, the 37th has become one of the state's few wide-open districts and a key test of the GOP's grip on central Fairfax."

Lt. Gov. candidate Chap Peterson really put Democrats in a pickle by running this year and making this seat up for grabs. The Democrats have two decent candidates in David Bulova and Janet Oleszek who are running a clean election against each other as of now.

The Republicans are going to counter with two solid candidates of their own. Former Fairfax City Mayor John Mason and newcomer Jim Kaplan are talking trash to each other. Mason says Kaplan is too "inexperienced". Kaplan points out that Mason has given money to Lt. Gov. Tim Kaine's campaign for Governor. Check them out.

Update: Not Larry Sabato has some insight to the 37th race and where it is leaning right now on the Democratic side. Here is the Republican side.

Wednesday, June 01, 2005

Primary Problem?

There are worries across the state about even lower turnout in VA's primary elections this June 14. From the Richmond Times Dispatch

"State law requires that a resident may vote in only one primary election. Because both political parties are holding a primary June 14, voters arriving at polling places will be asked whether they are voting in the Democratic or Republican primary and will be given the requested ballot.
The reluctance of some voters to commit themselves to a particular party -- if only for one day -- may discourage turnout, some election officials fear.
"They should understand that when they participate, they do not belong to a political party," Showalter said."

I personally don't think turnout will be depressed because of party identification. People when they get to the polls will understand that they aren't committing to a party and hell I think that some people will be emboldened by having to declare a party. The only problem I see are people that want to crossover in the 67th and 54th District.

Blogarama - The Blogs Directory