Tom Joad's Place

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Location: Fairfax, Virginia, United States

Wednesday, June 08, 2005

It's about

The Post states the obvious today in their series of articles on the VA Delegate races. The tax issue is THE issue. Well...duh! That's the sole reason that the Republicans who voted for the 2004 tax packages are getting challenges.

Chris Oprison is running the same playbook in the 33rd against Joe May that Chris Craddock in the 67th and Shaun Kenney in the 54th are. Everything else, for right now, goes by the wayside (abortion, guns, gays).

This is what piques my interest in the story...a change in NOVA political dynamics?

In the 2004 presidential election, 97 of America's 100 fastest-growing counties voted Republican, according to a study by the Los Angeles Times. Virginia has several such communities: Loudoun, Spotsylvania and Stafford counties are ranked in the top 25, according to federal statistics, and all voted overwhelmingly Republican in November.

Several of the GOP delegates who face anti-tax challengers represent these fast-growing areas.

The delegates and the challengers tend to have different visions of what the new residents want.

The challengers say that many of the new voters are looking for a more conservative brand of politician, one who takes a harder stand on taxes and social issues.

I don't know if they are MORE Republican in terms of hardcore conservative values. I actually think that the Republicans who are moving to Loudoun, Spotslyvania, and Stafford are moderates who want the kind of leadership and votes that May, Bobby Orrock and Gary Reese can provide. I also believe that you are getting more and more Democrats into the NOVA region. They will be moving out to Western Fairfax and Eastern Loudoun because of cheaper housing.

If these men are elected out this year and replaced with big time conservatives, you can expect the Democrats to come out with strong challenges in 2007 with moderate Dems who won't offend that much. The seats that the anti-tax Republicans pick up today can be in Dem hands by 2007. Be careful for what you wish for is what I've been told. Conservative Republicans in NOVA should heed that advice.

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